01/14/09 – Weather Reports

By exposed2009
DISCLAIMER: The opinions are those of the publisher, and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The data is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Readers should never assume that future recommendations will equal performance of those recommendations made in the past.
The market is full of RISK, and readers assume full liability for any investment loss.
 
Copyright © 2009 AIS – Answer Information Services All rights reserved. 
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 Stock Market Weather Report  !

If you woke up from a long, deep, year-long sleep, and didn’t have a calendar, how would you know it was the beginning of winter – and not the beginning of summer? Think about it. What would give you the best clue?

Temperature around 30 degrees and cold nights?

Lack of sunshine and shorter days?

Cloudy most of the time?

Rain and snow precipitation in the air?

Ice on the roadsides?

People all bundled up in coats and gloves?

Or, all of them together?

In an instant, you’d certainly know that it wasn‘t July – which would have an entirely different set of criteria.

Stock markets are the same way. Bear markets have one set of criteria, and Bull markets have an entirely different set. There is no mistaking one from the other.

Stock markets don’t have calendars, either, but both Bear markets and Bull markets do have certain specific indicators – just like the weather – that tell you which is which. Bull markets may start in August or November or even December, and Bear markets can start, randomly, in March, or May, or at any time, depending upon when the specific set of indicators line up.

When all the above indicators line up, you know it’s winter. Indicators give very specific clues as to the climate of the market.

Unfortunately, some people watch the wrong indicators, like the government, who finally declared a recession one year “after the fact“ – and a year after the Bear market began.

Most investors don’t like to learn the indicators, so they try to guess at it, and usually guess wrong. They watch Price only, (which is the absolute WRONG thing to do). Price won’t tell you anything. That’s like waiting until it snows before calling it winter. They enter the market at the wrong time, or too late, and leave too late, if at all – taking a healthy loss in the process.

Those indicators that dictate the market’s functionality are readily available at most financial schools throughout the country. That’s why most CEO’s and other Financial Officers (the Insiders) hold MBA’s or better. They see the cold weather elements coming in the market, long before the public sees it, and dump out of the market – selling their stock to the unsophisticated investor at the top of the market.

Conversely, at the same time, they know what to look for, when the summer breezes come along during the economic cycle, and they begin to buy stock. And, none of that may coincide with actual calendar months. It all depends on the indicators lining up.

If the temperature climbs to 70 degrees for a couple of weeks, and the air is balmy, and people are walking around in shirt-sleeves, it’s a pretty good indication that summer is close at hand.

If big-money interests, and sophisticated investors, as well as the usual Insiders begin buying stock by the truckload, it’s a pretty good indication that a Bull market is just around the corner. The seasons of the stock market change – according to specific indicators, like temperature and sunshine do for the weather.

We watch the same indicators they do, and confirm our findings by watching their actions. If they buy, we buy. If they sell, we sell.

Learn those specific indicators, and you’ll know how to beat the market – every time ! That’s what we do best – and we are rarely wrong …..

Stay Tuned !

Jack

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